-*- mode: org -*- Applications in business, ERP, and finance * 11(<-400): Assessing bank soundness with classification techniques The recent crisis highlighted, once again, the importance of early warning models to assess the soundness of individual banks. In the present study, we use six quantitative techniques originating from various disciplines to classify banks in three groups. The first group includes very strong and strong banks: the second one includes adequate banks, while the third group includes banks with weaknesses or serious problems. We compare models developed with financial variables only, with models that incorporate additional information in relation to the regulatory environment, institutional development, and macroeconomic conditions. The accuracy of classification of the models that include only financial variables is rather poor. We observe a substantial improvement in accuracy when we consider the country-level variables, with five out of the six models achieving out-of-sample classification accuracy above 70% on average. The models developed with multi-criteria decision aid and artificial neural networks achieve the highest accuracies. We also explore the development of stacked models that combine the predictions of the individual models at a higher level. While the stacked models outperform the corresponding individual models in most cases, we found no evidence that the best stacked model can outperform the best individual model. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 2010 * 28(<-518): A Multi-criteria Convex Quadratic Programming model for credit data analysis Speed and scalability are two essential issues in data mining and knowledge discovery. This paper proposed a mathematical programming model that addresses these two issues and applied the model to Credit Classification Problems. The proposed Multicriteria Convex Quadric Programming (MCQP) model is highly efficient (computing time complexity O(n(1.5-2))) and scalable to massive problems (size of O(10(9))) because it only needs to solve linear equations to find the global optimal solution. Kernel functions were introduced to the model to solve nonlinear problems. In addition, the theoretical relationship between the proposed MCQP model and SVM was discussed. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2008 * 29(<-587): A new multi-criteria Convex Quadratic Programming model for credit analysis Mathematical programming based methods have been applied to credit risk analysis and have proven to be powerful tools. One challenging issue in mathematical programming is the computation complexity in finding optimal solutions. To overcome this difficulty, this paper proposes a Multi-criteria Convex Quadratic Programming model (MCCQP). Instead of looking for the global optimal solution, the proposed model only needs to solve a set of linear equations. We test the model using three credit risk analysis datasets and compare MCCQP results with four well-known classification methods: LDA, Decision Tree, SVMLight, and LibSVM. The experimental results indicate that the proposed MCCQP model achieves as good as or even better classification accuracies than other methods. 2006 * 49(<- 83): LG-Trader: Stock trading decision support based on feature selection by weighted localized generalization error model Stock trading is an important financial activity of human society. Machine learning techniques are adopted to provide trading decision support by predicting the stock price or trading signals of the next day. Decisions are made by analyzing technical indices and fundamental analysis of companies. There are two major machine learning research problems for stock trading decision support: classifier architecture selection and feature selection. In this work, we propose the LG-Trader which will deal with these two problems simultaneously using a genetic algorithm minimizing a new Weighted Localized Generalization Error (wL-GEM). An issue being ignored in current machine learning based stock trading researches is the imbalance among buy, hold and sell decisions. Usually hold decision is the majority in comparison to both buy and sell decisions. So, the wL-GEM is proposed to balance classes by penalizing heavier for generalization error being made in minority classes. The feature selection based on wL-GEM helps to select most useful technical indices among choices for each stock. Experimental results demonstrate that the LG-Trader yields higher profits and rates of return in both stock and index trading. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2014 * 65(<-363): Multi-criteria ABC analysis using artificial-intelligence-based classification techniques ABC analysis is a popular and effective method used to classify inventory items into specific categories that can be managed and controlled separately. Conventional ABC analysis classifies inventory items three categories: A, B, or C based on annual dollar usage of an inventory item. Multi-criteria inventory classification has been proposed by a number of researchers in order to take other important criteria into consideration. These researchers have compared artificial-intelligence (AI)-based classification techniques with traditional multiple discriminant analysis (MDA). Examples of these AI-based techniques include support vector machines (SVMs), backpropagation networks (BPNs), and the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) algorithm. To test the effectiveness of these techniques, classification results based on four benchmark techniques are compared. The results show that AI-based techniques demonstrate superior accuracy to MDA. Statistical analysis reveals that SVM enables more accurate classification than other AI-based techniques. This finding suggests the possibility of implementing AI-based techniques for multi-criteria ABC analysis in enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 2011 * 73(<-343): Building a qualitative recruitment system via SVM with MCDM approach Advances in information technology have led to behavioral changes in people and submission of curriculum vitae (CV) via the Internet has become an often-seen phenomenon. Without any technological support for the filtering process, recruitment can be difficult. In this research, a method combining five-factor personality inventory, support vector machine (SVM), and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method was proposed to improve the quality of recruiting appropriate candidates. The online questionnaire personality testing developed by the International Personality Item Pool (IPIP) was utilized to identify the personal traits of candidates and both SVM and MCDM were employed to predict and support the decision of personnel choice. SVM was utilized to predict the fitness of candidates, while MCDM was employed to estimate the performance for a job placement. The results show the proposed system provides a qualified matching according to the results collected from enterprise managers. 2011 * 80(<-108): Credit risk evaluation using multi-criteria optimization classifier with kernel, fuzzification and penalty factors With the fast development of financial products and services, bank's credit departments collected large amounts of data, which risk analysts use to build appropriate credit scoring models to evaluate an applicant's credit risk accurately. One of these models is the Multi-Criteria Optimization Classifier (MCOC). By finding a trade-off between overlapping of different classes and total distance from input points to the decision boundary, MCOC can derive a decision function from distinct classes of training data and subsequently use this function to predict the class label of an unseen sample. In many real world applications, however, owing to noise, outliers, class imbalance, nonlinearly separable problems and other uncertainties in data, classification quality degenerates rapidly when using MCOC. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-criteria optimization classifier based on kernel, fuzzification, and penalty factors (KFP-MCOC): Firstly a kernel function is used to map input points into a high-dimensional feature space, then an appropriate fuzzy membership function is introduced to MCOC and associated with each data point in the feature space, and the unequal penalty factors are added to the input points of imbalanced classes. Thus, the effects of the aforementioned problems are reduced. Our experimental results of credit risk evaluation and their comparison with MCOC, support vector machines (SVM) and fuzzy SVM show that KFP-MCOC can enhance the separation of different applicants, the efficiency of credit risk scoring, and the generalization of predicting the credit rank of a new credit applicant. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2014 * 83(<-333): SINGLE-LAYER PERCEPTRON WITH NON-ADDITIVE PREFERENCE INDICES AND ITS APPLICATION TO BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION Preference Ranking Organization METHods for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), based on outranking relation theory, are used extensively in Multi-Criteria Decision Aid (MCDA). In PROMETHEE, an overall preference index based on weighted average aggregation represents the intensity of preference for one pattern over another pattern and can be measured by a given preference function. Unfortunately, as the criteria making up the patterns are not always independent, the assumption of additivity among single-criterion preference indices may not be reasonable. This paper develops a novel PROMETHEE-based perceptron using nonadditive preference indices for ordinal sorting problems. The applicability of the proposed non-additive PROMETHEE-based single-layer perceptron (SLP) to bankruptcy prediction is examined by using a sample of 53 publicly traded, Taiwanese firms that encountered financial failure between 2000 and 2008. The proposed model performs well compared to PROMETHEE with additive preference indices and other additive PROMETHEE-based classification approaches. 2011 * 85(<-459): Bankruptcy prediction using ELECTRE-based single-layer perceptron For the outranking relation theory, the ELECTRE methods are one of the most extensively used outranking methods. To measure the degree of agreement and the degree of disagreement of the proposition "one alternative outranks another alternative", the concordance and discordance relations are usually associated with the outranking relation. Instead of the traditional single-layer perceptron (SLP) developed according to the multiple-attribute utility theory, this paper contributes to develop a novel ELECTRE-based SLP for multicriteria classification problems based on the ELECTRE methods involving pairwise comparisons among patterns. A genetic-algorithm-based method is then designed to determine connection weights. A real-world data set involving bankruptcy analysis obtained from Moody's Industrial Manuals is employed to examine the classification performance of the proposed ELECTRE-based model. The results demonstrate that the proposed model performs well compared to an arsenal of well-known classification methods involving quantitative disciplines of statistics and machine learning. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2009 * 139(<-322): Dynamic multi-criteria evaluation of co-evolution strategies for solving stock trading problems Risk and return are interdependent in a stock portfolio. To achieve the anticipated return, comparative risk should be considered simultaneously. However, complex investment environments and dynamic change in decision making criteria complicate forecasts of risk and return for various investment objects. Additionally, investors often fail to maximize their profits because of improper capital allocation. Although stock investment involves multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), traditional MCDM theory has two shortfalls: first, it is inappropriate for decisions that evolve with a changing environment; second, weight assignments for various criteria are often oversimplified and inconsistent with actual human thinking processes. In 1965, Rechenberg proposed evolution strategies for solving optimization problems involving real number parameters and addressed several flaws in traditional algorithms, such as their use of point search only and their high probability of falling into optimal solution area. In 1992, Hillis introduced the co-evolutionary concept that the evolution of living creatures is interactive with their environments (multi-criteria) and constantly improves the survivability of their genes, which then expedites evolutionary computation. Therefore, this research aimed to solve multi-criteria decision making problems of stock trading investment by integrating evolutionary strategies into the co-evolutionary criteria evaluation model. Since co-evolution strategies are self-calibrating, criteria evaluation can be based on changes in time and environment. Such changes not only correspond with human decision making patterns (i.e., evaluation of dynamic changes in criteria), but also address the weaknesses of multi-criteria decision making (i.e., simplified assignment of weights for various criteria). Co-evolutionary evolution strategies can identify the optimal capital portfolio and can help investors maximize their returns by optimizing the preoperational allocation of limited capital. This experimental study compared general evolution strategies with artificial neural forecast model, and found that co-evolutionary evolution strategies outperform general evolution strategies and substantially outperform artificial neural forecast models. The co-evolutionary criteria evaluation model avoids the problem of oversimplified adaptive functions adopted by general algorithms and the problem of favoring weights but failing to adaptively adjust to environmental change, which is a major limitation of traditional multi-criteria decision making. Doing so allows adaptation of various criteria in response to changes in various capital allocation chromosomes. Capital allocation chromosomes in the proposed model also adapt to various criteria and evolve in ways that resemble thinking patterns. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 2011 * 148(<-461): Pairs selection and outranking: An application to the S&P 100 index Pairs trading is a popular quantitative speculation strategy. This article proposes a general and flexible framework for pairs selection. The method uses multiple return forecasts based on bivariate information sets and multi-criteria decision techniques. Our approach can be seen as a sort of forecast combination but the output of the method is a ranking. It helps to detect potentially under- and overvalued stocks. A first application with S&P 100 index stocks provides promising results in terms of excess return and directional forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2009 * 151(<-142): A new multicriteria approach for the analysis of efficiency in the Spanish olive oil sector by modelling decision maker preferences The efficiency in production is often analysed as technical efficiency using the production frontier function. Efficiency scores are usually based on distance computations to the frontier in an m + s-dimensional space, where m inputs produce s outputs. In addition, efficiency improvements consider the total consumption of each input. However, in many cases, the "consumption" of each input can be divided into input-consumption sections (ICSs), and trade-off among the ICSs is possible. This share framework can be used for computing efficiency. This analysis provides information about both the total optimal consumption of each input, as does data envelopment analysis, and the most efficient allocation of the "consumption" among the ICSs. This paper studies technical efficiency using this approach and applies it to the olive oil sector in Andalusia (Spain). A non-parametrical methodology is presented, and an input-oriented Multi-Criteria Linear Programming model (MLP) is proposed. The analysis is developed at global, input and ICSs levels, defining the extent of satisfaction achieved at all these levels for each company, in accordance with their own preferences. The companies' preferences are modelled with their utility function and their set of weights. MLP offers more detailed information to assist decision makers than other models previously proposed in the literature. In addition to this application, it is concluded that there is room for improvement in the olive oil sector, particularly in the management of the skilled labour. Additionally, the solutions with two opposite scenarios indicate that the model is suitable for the intended decision making process. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2014 * 254(<-612): Evolutionary multiobjective optimization approach for evolving ensemble of intelligent paradigms for stock market modeling The use of intelligent systems for stock market predictions has been widely established. This paper introduces a genetic programming technique (called Multi-Expression programming) for the prediction of two stock indices. The performance is then compared with an artificial neural network trained using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, support vector machine, Takagi-Sugeno neuro-fuzzy model and a difference boosting neural network. As evident from the empirical results, none of the five considered techniques could find an optimal solution for all the four performance measures. Further the results obtained by these five techniques are combined using an ensemble and two well known Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization (EMO) algorithms namely Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA II) and Pareto Archive Evolution Strategy (PAES) algorithms in order to obtain an optimal ensemble combination which could also optimize the four different performance measures (objectives). We considered Nasdaq-100 index of Nasdaq Stock Market and the S&P CNX NIFTY stock index as test data. Empirical results reveal that the resulting ensemble obtain the best results. 2005 * 282(<- 57): Modelling commodity value at risk with Psi Sigma neural networks using open-high-low-close data The motivation for this paper is to investigate the use of a promising class of neural network models, Psi Sigma (PSI), when applied to the task of forecasting the one-day ahead value at risk (VaR) of the oil Brent and gold bullion series using open-high-low-close data. In order to benchmark our results, we also consider VaR forecasts from two different neural network designs, the multilayer perceptron and the recurrent neural network, a genetic programming algorithm, an extreme value theory model along with some traditional techniques such as an ARMA-Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle (1,1) model and the RiskMetrics volatility. The forecasting performance of all models for computing the VaR of the Brent oil and the gold bullion is examined over the period September 2001-August 2010 using the last year and half of data for out-of-sample testing. The evaluation of our models is done by using a series of backtesting algorithms such as the Christoffersen tests, the violation ratio and our proposed loss function that considers not only the number of violations but also their magnitude. Our results show that the PSI outperforms all other models in forecasting the VaR of gold and oil at both the 5% and 1% confidence levels, providing an accurate number of independent violations with small magnitude. 2015 * 300(<-534): Functional-link net with fuzzy integral for bankruptcy prediction The classification ability of a single-layer perceptron could be improved by considering some enhanced features. In particular, this form of neural networks is called a functional-link net. In the output neuron's activation function, such as the sigmoid function, an inner product of a connection weight vector with an input vector is computed. However, since the input features are not independent of each other for the enhanced pattern, an assumption of the additivity is not reasonable. This paper employs a non-additive technique, namely the fuzzy integral, to aggregate performance values for an input pattern by interpreting each of the connection weights as a fuzzy measure of the corresponding feature. A learning algorithm with the genetic algorithm is then designed to automatically find connection weights. The sample data for bankruptcy analysis obtained from Moody's Industrial Manuals is considered to examine the classification ability of the proposed method. The results demonstrate that the proposed method performs well in comparison with traditional functional-link net and multivariate techniques. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2007 * 322(<-315): A dynamic feedback model for partner selection in agile supply chains Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present a four-phase dynamic feedback model for supply partner selection in agile supply chains (ASCs). ASCs are commonly used as a response to increasingly dynamic markets. However, partner selection in ASCs is inherently more complex and difficult under conditions of uncertainty and ambiguity as supply chains form and re-form. Design/methodology/approach - The model draws on both quantitative and qualitative techniques, including the Dempster-Shafer and optimisation theories, radial basis function artificial neural net:works (RBF-ANN), analytic network process-mixed integer multi-objective programming (ANP-MIMOP), Kraljic's supplier classification matrix and principles of continuous improvement. It incorporates modern computer programming techniques to overcome the information processing difficulties inherent in selecting from amongst large numbers of potential suppliers against multiple criteria in conditions of uncertainty. Findings - The model enables decision makers to make efficient and effective use of the vastly increased amount of data that is available in today's information-driven society and it offers a comprehensive, systematic and rigorous approach to a complex problem. Research limitations/implications - The model has two main drawbacks. First, practitioners may find it difficult to match supplier evaluation criteria with the strategic objectives for an ASC. Second, they may perceive the model to be too complex for use when speed is of the essence. Originality/value - The main contribution of this paper is that, for the first time, it draws together work from previous articles that have described each of the four stages of the model in detail to present a comprehensive overview of the model. 2012 * 323(<-342): A multiple kernel learning-based decision support model for contractor pre-qualification Due to the complex nature of the contractor pre-qualification such as subjectivity, non-linearity and multi-criteria, advanced model should be required for achieving a high accuracy of this decision-making process. Previous studies have been conducted to build up quantitative decision models for contractor pre-qualification, among them artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM) have been proved to be desirable in solving the pre-qualification problem with regards to their higher accuracy and efficiency for solving the non-linear problem of classification. Based on the algorithm of SVM, multiple kernel learning (MKL) method was developed and it has been proved to perform better than SVM in other areas. Hence, MKL is proposed in this research, the capability of MKL was compared with SVM through a case study. From the result, it has been proved that both SVM and MKL perform well in classification, and MKL is more preferable than SVM, with a proper parameter setting. Therefore, MKL can enhance the decision making of contractor pre-qualification. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2011 * 385(<-563): Learning-based automated negotiation between shipper and forwarder This paper studies an automated negotiation system by means of a learning-based approach. Negotiation between shipper and forwarder is used as an example in which the issues of negotiation are unit shipping price, delay penalty, due date, and shipping quantity. A data ratios method is proposed as the input of the neural network technique to explore the learning in automated negotiation with the negotiation decision functions (NDFs) developed by [Faratin, P., Sierra, C., & Jennings, N.R. (1998). Negotiation Decision Functions for Autonomous Agents. Robotics and Autonomous Systems, 24 (3), 159-182]. The concession tactic and weight of every issue offered by the opponent can be learned from this process exactly. After learning, a trade-off mechanism can be applied to achieve better negotiation result on the distance to Pareto optimal solution. Based on the results of this study, we believe that our findings can provide more insight into agent-based negotiation and can be applied to improve negotiation processes. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 2006 * 390(<-388): Pairs trading and outranking: The multi-step-ahead forecasting case Pairs trading is a popular speculation strategy. Several implementation methods are proposed in the literature: they can be based on a distance criterion or on co-integration. This article extends previous research in another direction: the combination of forecasting techniques (Neural Networks) and multi-criteria decision making methods (Electre III). The key contribution of this paper is the introduction of multi-step-ahead forecasts. It leads to major changes in the trading system and raises new empirical and methodological questions. The results of an application based on S&P 100 Index stocks are promising: this methodology could be a powerful tool for pairs selection in a highly non-linear environment. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2010 * 405(<- 27): EFFECTS OF PROJECT UNCERTAINTIES ON NONLINEAR TIME-COST TRADEOFF PROFILE This study presents the effects of project uncertainties on nonlinear time-cost tradeoff (TOT) profile of real life engineering projects by the fusion of fuzzy logic and artificial neural network (ANN) models with hybrid meta-heuristic (HMH) technique, abridged as Fuzzy-ANN-HMH. Nonlinear time-cost relationship of project activities is dealt with ANN models. ANN models are then integrated with HMH technique to search for Pareto-optimal nonlinear TCT profile. HMH technique incorporates simulated annealing in the selection process of multiobjective genetic algorithm. Moreover, in real life engineering projects, uncertainties like management experience, labor skills, and weather conditions are commonly involved, which affect the duration and cost of the project activities. Fuzzy-ANN-HMH analyses responsiveness of nonlinear TOT profile with respect to these uncertainties. A comparison of Fuzzy-ANN-HMH is made with another method in literature to solve nonlinear TCT problem and the superiority of Fuzzy-ANN-HMH is demonstrated by results. The study gives project planners to carry out the best plan that optimizes time and cost to complete a project under uncertain environment. 2015 * 406(<-169): Integrated ANN-HMH Approach for Nonlinear Time-Cost Tradeoff Problem This paper presents an integrated Artificial Neural Network - Hybrid Meta Heuristic(ANN-HMH) method to solve the nonlinear time-cost tradeoff(TCT) problem of real life engineering projects. ANN models help to capture the existing nonlinear time-cost relationship in project activities. ANN models are then integrated with HMH technique to search for optimal TCT profile. HMH is a proven evolutionary multiobjective optimization technique for solving TCT problems. The study has implication in real time monitoring and control of project scheduling processes. 2014 * 407(<-522): Neural network embedded multiobjective genetic algorithm to solve non-linear time-cost tradeoff problems of project scheduling This paper presents a novel method to solve non-linear time-cost tradeoff (TCT) problem of real world engineering projects. Multiobjective genetic algorithm (MOGA) is employed to search for optimal TCT profile. Applicability of ANN based model for rapid estimation of time-cost relationship by invoking its function approximation capability is investigated, ANN models are then integrated with MOGA so as to develop a comprehensive approach to solve non-linear TCT problems of project scheduling. The study has implications in real time monitoring and control of project scheduling process. 2008 * 432(<-500): Determining the parameters of dual-card kanban system: an integrated multicriteria and artificial neural network methodology In this study, we proposed a methodology for determining the design parameters of kanban systems. In this methodology, a backpropagation neural network is used in order to generate simulation meta-models, and a multi-criteria decision making technique (TOPSIS) is employed to evaluate kanban combinations. In order to reflect the decision maker's point of view, different weight structures are used to find the optimum design parameters. The proposed methodology is applied to a case problem and the results are presented. We also performed several experiments on different types of problems to show the effectiveness of the methodology. 2008 * 509(<-630): A comparison of discrete and continuous neural network approaches to solve the class/teacher timetabling problem This study explores the application of neural network-based heuristics to the class/teacher timetabling problem (CTTP). The paper begins by presenting the problem characteristics in terms of hard and soft constraints and proposing a formulation for the energy function required to map the issue within the artificial neural network model. There follow two distinct approaches to simulating neural network evolution. The first uses a Potts mean-field annealing simulation based on continuous Potts neurons, which has obtained favorable results in various combinatorial optimization problems. Afterwards, a discrete neural network simulation, with discrete winner-takes-all neurons, is proposed. The paper concludes with a comparison of the computational results taken from the application of both heuristics to hard hypothetical and real CTTP instances. This experiment demonstrates that the discrete approach performs better, in terms of solution quality as well as execution time. By extending the comparison, the neural discrete solutions are also compared with those obtained from a multiobjective genetic algorithm, which is already being successfully used for this problem within a timetabling software application. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2004 * 525(<-178): A hybrid multi-objective approach based on the genetic algorithm and neural network to design an incremental cellular manufacturing system One important issue related to the implementation of cellular manufacturing systems (CMSs) is to decide whether to convert an existing job shop into a CMS comprehensively in a single run, or in stages incrementally by forming cells one after the other, taking the advantage of the experiences of implementation. This paper presents a new multi-objective nonlinear programming model in a dynamic environment. Furthermore, a novel hybrid multi-objective approach based on the genetic algorithm and artificial neural network is proposed to solve the presented model. From the computational analyses, the proposed algorithm is found much more efficient than the fast non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) in generating Pareto optimal fronts. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 2013