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Feasibility study of the Proposed EU-Life-Nature-Project
"Protection of the European Lesser White-fronted Goose (Anser erythropus)"
Feasibility study of the Proposed EU-Life-Nature-Project
"Protection of the European Lesser White-fronted Goose (Anser erythropus)"
- 0. Summary
- 1. Background and general principles
- 2. Feasibility of the re-stocking activities of the Project
- 2.1. The economy of re-stocking
- 2.2. Risk Analysis of re-stocking
- 2.3. Legal aspects of re-stocking
- 2.4. Choice of re-stocking partners
- 2.5. Expected results of re-stocking in relation to invested effort
- 2.6. Expected permanence of re-stocking results
- 3. Feasibility of the mortality reducing activities of the Project
- 3.1. Economical feasibility of mortality reducing actions
- 3.2. Risk analysis of mortality reducing actions
- 3.3. The legal aspect of mortality reducing actions
- 3.4. Choice of partners to mortality reducing actions
- 3.5. Expected results in relation to invested effort in mortality reducing actions
- 3.6 Expected permanence of results of mortality reducing actions
- Conclusions
The Project "Protection of the European Anser erythropus (Lesser White-fronted Goose)" - henceforth called "the Project" - aims at creating favourable conditions for protection of the European population of the wild goose species Anser erythropus, threatened by extinction in Europe. To reach this goal, the Project follows two distinct major lines of thought and action:
1) the promising method of continuing and strengthening the re-introduction programme already running in Sweden
2) the valuable, yet very difficult method of reducing the mortality of the surviving remnants of the original free living Anser erythropus population still found in Norway.
Both these lines are different, but worth following. The partners and subcontractors involved in the Project have been carefully chosen, to have the will and capacity to successfully carry out the planned actions in the framework of the planned resources and time.
The reason for the double action model of the Project can be found in the protectional status of the original population which has been largely clarified by several recent studies, notably those published in the activity reports and annual reports of the LIFE-Nature sponsored Finnish/Fennoscandian Lesser White-fronted Goose conservation projects, and the the Swedish re-introduction project. To sum up their results: of the originally abundant (more than 10.000) natural population less than half a hundred individuals survive today, and they are dying out at a pace of at least 5% a year. The main reasons for this state of affairs can be found along the migration routes. In contrast to most other European wild geese, these Anser erythropus migrate south-east. The fall staging grounds and stop-over areas are basically known, covering large territories mainly in the Caspian Sea region, whereas the main wintering grounds are still largely unknown despite of serious efforts. The Caspian Sea region seems to be in a key position here as well. In spring, the geese migrate back to Lapland via the Baltic countries and along the gulf of Bothnia. Evident reasons for the extreme mortality - particularly of young birds - along this route are intensive hunting and extreme environmental changes in the Caspian Sea shore ecosystems.
To protect the Anser erythropus during their dangerous migration through many countries, strict hunting regulations and controls are urgent, but imosing them meets with serious difficulties. A formal ban on hunting the Anser erythropus has no effect, since hunters cannot be expected to quickly learn to distinguish between this and other very similar looking goose species, or giving up hunting geese altogeher. Directing hunting pressure away from Anser erythropus in the long run may be possible through new legislature and improved education. The other theoretical possibility of creating suitable sanctuaries in the critical areas and time periods, where the Anser erythropus stay, is only slightly more realistic. These areas should be well known and relatively small, otherwise illegal hunting cannot ne prevented. But the geese spread over large areas and these also change from year to year. In fact, some of the large lakes in the region - thousends of hectares - occasionally dry out forcing the geese to continue their migration for hundreads of kilometers. Although professional biology has a high standard in the relevant countries, the large numbers of amateur ornithologists do not exist which are needed to quickly find out, where exactly to concentrate protection by sanctuaries efforts, if it is possible at all. Also, the collapse of the Soviet system has lead to a decline in all kind of control systems in the area.
As a summary of the above, one must expect a further decline of the original European population of Anser erythropus. But giving up protection is out of the question, so the Project includes various well aimed actions aiming at rescuing the natural population, but the Project realistically also prepares for their possible extinction.
At first glance, re-introduction efforts of a species with problems of the kind discussed above would seem hopeless, but the success of a Swedish re-introduction programme tells us the contrary. In the Swedish programme lead by the late Lambart von Essen PhD., Anser erythropus goslings were imprinted on Barnacle Goose (Branta leucopsis) foster parents, thus combining re-introduction with the creation of an alternative migratory behaviour. The basic effect of this was a dramatic drop in mortality during migration. During more than ten years of re-introductions a population of 70-80 geese has been created in Swedish Lapland. The fertility of these geese surpasses their mortality. Now alredy the second generation is migrating west. A detailed prediction of their probable future is given in the mathematical model attached to this study.
The Swedish experience shows that successful re-introduction is possible, since it has - at least as a pilot project - succeeded already. Knowing that the method works, continued re-establishment efforts can safely be called a feasible approach to the problem of preventing extinction of Anser erythropus in Europe. There are several aspects though, that have to be taken into account. These fall into categories: 1) economical feasibility 2) risk analysis 3) the legal aspect 4) choice of partners 5) expected results in relation to invested effort 6) expected permanence of results
This Project proposal contains, among other data, detailed information on why and how a certain amount of resources is needed to carry through a basic part of the re-stocking activities: ensuring the quality and number of available goslings. These numbers build upon the cost analysis described in detail in the annex of this study. The main input of the analysis is the goal of a free living population of Anser erythropus producing 100 goslings annually. As a result of this careful analysis the following table of re-stocking time is obtained
annual releases
20
39
50
80
100
needed years
54
40
26
18
15
The direct cost of running a re-stocking program are not proportional to the number of goslings released annually &emdash; experience from Finnish and Swedish farms show that direct farming costs sum up to about 500 EURO for each gosling -- but carrying out the actual re-introductions and keeping all the necessary infrastructure going needs an independent part of at least 30 000 EURO / year. This estimate leads to the following table of re-introduction cost: (As described in the Project proposal, monitoring and research add to these numbers, but they are not included in the estimate, since they continue after completed re-stocking.)
annual releases
20
39
50
80
100
1000 Euro/year
40
45
55
70
80
Mill Euro /total
2,2
1,8
1,4
1,2
1,2
In the light of these numbers, the Project aim to produce 100 goslings a year is feasible from the economical viewpoint. Also, a project time of 15 instead of more than 50 years seems feasible taking into account interest and economical risks.
It should be pointed out that Sweden is currently re-organizing its Anser erythropus project after the sudden and regrettable death of its prominent leader, Lambart von Essen PhD. Costs for running the Swedish re-stocking farms are included in the above estimates but not in the Project proposal at hand.
Beside estimated production costs, also the capability and carefulness of the re-stocking farms must be considered in order to guarantee maximal economical safety. This has been duly observed (See point 2.4.).
There are well known risks in re-introducing captive animals to nature. The most important principles aim at protecting natural populations of the same and other. No diseses must be spread, no harmful competition or predation must occur, and genetic changes of the original population must be kept to a feasible minimum.
This Project proposal follows the IUCN Guidelines for Re-introductions approved by the 41st Meeting of the Council in May 1995, and the principles of the Action Plan on Anser erythropus, compiled by the Council of Europe, European Union LIFE-Nature, BirdLife International, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, and Wetlands International and approved in February 1996.
The Lesser White-fronted Goose has traditionally been regarded as species with only one race. Recently some preliminary results have been published hinting at possible racial differences in mitochondrial DNA-markers Lesser White-fronted Geese. There have also been indications of hybridization of captive birds with Barnacle Goose (Anser albifrons). The relevance of these findings is unknown, as there is only limited access to genetic material from free living Lesser White-fronted Geese and also only a dozen captive birds have been investigated. Regardless of the possible existence of genetically distinguishable populations of Lesser White-fronted Geese, farm birds must be used for re-stocking, since no original stock are available. A thorough investigation of the genetic - chomosome DNA - background of the captive stock in Sweden is being carried out during this year, before continuing re-introductions. Controlling the Finnish and Central European stock as well is sceduled in the current Project proposal.
The risks for epidemies are much less disussed in public than possible genetic hazards. This is understandable since migrating birds can and will carry diseses with them anyway. In any case strict veterinary measures will be taken to guarantee complete health of goslings moved to and from the farms. This is mentioned in the Project proposal.
No predation or competition risks exist.
Both Finnish re-stocking farms have the right to breed Anser erythropus. Only goslings from legal farms will be accepted in this Project. Transferring goose eggs and goslings between EU countries is only subject to standard veterinary conditions, which will be taken into account according to the Project proposal. No legal problems are known to interfere with the Project.
In addition to taking into account the legal aspects mentioned above, the partners and subcontractors involved in poreparation for re-stocking have been carefully chosen, to have the will and capacity to successfully carry out the planned actions in the framework of the planned resources and time.
Both Finnish farms - even more so the Helsinki Zoo - have more than a decade's experience in breeding Anser erythropus. The know-how gathered and the problems encountered and solved during this time have shown the necessity for a network of not too large farms, but also of careful choices, as new producers are accepted to breed Anser erythropus fo re-stocking. In choosing the farms participating in the network, the co-operation of a renowned institute like the Biological Station Wesel, Germany will guarantee the quality of new production sites. As a subcontractor, the Biological Station Wesel is both experienced and very capable to carry on to organize the monitoring of wintering re-introduced Anser erythropus in Western Europe, mostly in Germany and the Netherlands. The partners Matsalu Nature Reserve (Estonia) and Hortobagy National Park (Hungary) are absolute hot spots in Europe in migration monitoring, equipped with very experienced professional staff, and best networks of collecting information on migrating birds in their respective countries. Both are reliable and able partners in monitoring the occurrence of Anser erythropus on stop-over sites in Estonia and Hungary.
Monitoring and observing the decline of the natural populationof Anser erythropus in Europe is not cheap - already this Project proposal reserves some EURO for this kind of activities, which of course are absolytely necessary to guide the conservation measures proper to the most effective lines of action. In comparison, having already gathered a substantial amount of information, and having already invested in the infrastructures, know-how and geese on the farms, re-stocking now evidently offers good value for the money (see tables above in 2.1.) by substantially improving the status of the species in Europe.
As the tables under point 2.2. show, the results of re-stocking are expected to be permanent and even self-improving after the full period of 15 years. If re-stocking is carried out at a slower speed than suggested in this study, then it will take longer to obtain results which could be called permanent with the same probabnility. The Project proposal builds on the expectation that re-stocking will continue after 2004 until permanent results are obtained. If this is not the case, then the population models show a permanent growth of the re-introduced population anyhow, but the population will stay dangerously small and vulnerable for decades.
The overall features of this half of the Project were largely discussed in the Chapter 1. on Background and general principles. In spite of the problems mentioned there, the experience of the previous Anser erythropus project (Project LIFE97/NAT/FIN/4098) in 1997-2000 shows that successful activities aiming at improving the status of the free living original population are possible. The most spectacular discovery made in that project, were the stop-over areas disclosed on the White Sea's Kanin Peninsula, which soon afterwards were turned into a bird sanctuary by the Russian government.
As already mentioned in the introduction, the worst pressure on the natural population occurs at stop-overs and possible wintering areas in the Caspian Sea region. Research done in order to find solutions to these problems -- also seriously thretening the future of the Russian, in particular the West-Siberian population of Anser erythropus -- must be carried out before suggesting appropriate measures that would be economically and politically feasible in the relevant countries. Finding solutions in cooperation with local researchers and authorities is the only possible way improve the situation. The Regional Environmental Cetre of Häme has not only the long experience and combined language and biological skills fo this kind of negotiating efforts, but also working contacts to many persons in charge in the relevant countries. Enlargening these contacts to all countries of the Caspian region needs the long time involvment of dedicated persons on both sides. It promises no immediate results, but aims at keeping changes going in the right directionat least. Improving the conditions for the natural population of Anser erythropus is ranked high.
The actions in this Project are kept economically feasible by relying to local experise, wherever appropriate, that is where there is genuine local expertise available. As a result of the activities of the previous projects mentioned above, this is known to be the case.
The mortality reducing actions planned for bring about no particular risk.
The mortality reducing actions of the Project contain no legal problems. They do aim at improving the legal status of Anser erythropus in certain countries.
As shown by its activities in the previous projects mentioned above, the Häme Environmental Centre is very experienced and able to carry out the negotiantions in question. Needless to say, the need biological, legal and language skills are found among the staff also. In each Caspian Sea country, working contacts have already been built up to most competent and experienced persons representing appropriate institutions. With some organization effort, much new information can now be obtained. Bringing about legal change like memberships of the relevant countries in international conservational organizations, needs a long time effort of the same experienced persons. This is exactly, what the Project aims at.
Also monitoring done by the Estonian (Matsalu Nature Reserve) and Hungarian (Hortobagy National Park) partrners can be seen as part of the research for mortality reducing actions. The suitability of these partners for reliably carrying out these tasks is beyond doubt, as discussed in detail at point 2.4.
Like the re-introduction, also the mortality reducing part of the Project contains both research and conservation proper. High quality professional research is done in the relevant countries, but personal resources are limited in number. Therefore, new large scale investigations take time, but with appropriate support they can be kept going on steadily. For the Project, quick results are possible by just searching for existing published and unpublished material. Here the expected input-output ratio of Project seems promising. The expected direct conservation results rely on the success of both the research activities and the negotiatons based thereupon. Also, the future economical development of the Caspian Sea countries plays an important role here, and estimating the outcome of the Project effort is difficult. It should be kept in mind, though, that reduced mortality during migration is the optimal result in world wide efforts to protect the species Anser erythropus, so these long time activities should be supported steadily. The money reserved for these actions stands in good proportion to the expected results.
The mortality reducing actions consist of background research and of negotiations in order to impose conservation measures. Results of research permanently add to our knowledge, losing their up to dateness only through changes in the ecosystem as time passes. The effects of conservation measures like hunting restrictions, preference of certain agricultural methods over others etc. also have a permanent character. What is not permanent without constant follow-up is the contniuation of the process of increasing awareness of the conservation needs of Anser erythropus among authorities in the migration and wintering area countries, but a formal Regional Action Plan, and National Action Plans for the species will be permanent Project results supporting a healthy long term development also after the termination of the Project as such. With noninterrupted European activity, a contiuous trend to overall positive change can be maintained.
Both aims are important, the plans for realizing them are realistic and economically sound. The partners and subcontractors have been carefully chosen for optimal performance and reliability.
It is worth while to point out here that the two aims do not contradict each other. Re-introductions of Anser erythropus can and have been carried out on areas far south-west from the habitats of the last free living Anser erythropus, and wintering areas of the natural and re-introduced populations are separate. The two populations will hardly interact unless/until this is deliberately organized inorder to fight inbreeding - not yet during the running time of this Project.
1) Reports of the LIFE-Nature sponsored Finnish/Fennoscandian Lesser White-fronted Goose conservation Projects
2) Annual reports of the Swedish re-introduction Project
3) A mathematical model for the population growth of the re-introduced Lesser White-fronted Goose in Sweden