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The Eurasian Politician - Issue 4 (August 2001)
By Pavel Felgenhauer
Source: Moscow Times, June 28, 2001, Johnson’s Russia List
For several months now, both sides in Chechnya — the rebels and the Russian military — have been preparing for a big clash. The rebel leadership believes that guerrilla attacks as such cannot end the occupation, and that a long war of attrition against Russia will destroy the tiny Chechen nation and only a major military disaster can force the Kremlin to begin peace talks.
To be effective, a Chechen offensive should be supported by the vast majority of the population, and by all the resistance groups and warlords. Today the conditions for an uprising seem to be ripe: thousands of Chechens seem ready to take to arms in a desperate attempt to end the brutal occupation.
It is reported from Chechnya that in the last several days, the resistance has been distributing leaflets calling on the population to get ready for a step up in combat activity. The president of Ingushetia, General Ruslan Aushev — a decorated veteran of the Soviet war in Afghanistan — told NTV television that as a military professional he believes the Chechen rebels are prepared and capable of beginning a major offensive.
That the Chechen resistance has been planning a popular uprising is no secret. Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, have been stating publicly that the rebels have been shattered into small groups of three to 10 fighters each and that they will never again manage to gather into big "bands," capable of challenging the Russian forces in the open.
But their deeds do not match their victory proclamations. Last month, the Kremlin stopped the partial withdrawal of troops from Chechnya that had been announced by Putin as part of a peace plan. It was stopped "until further notice." The units that left Chechnya have returned or been replaced and the overall military strength of Russian forces in the region today is over 80,000 men.
Although in public Russian generals may say otherwise, in fact the coming Chechen counteroffensive has forced them to alter their long-term plans. The partial withdrawal of Russian troops from Chechnya was meant to cut expenditures, while allowing an upgrade of the remaining forces. Instead, the number of troops has not changed, while their pay has been dramatically cut. The Kremlin has decided to meet the Chechen offensive Russian style — with more troops of lesser quality.
In 1996, a month before rebels defeated the Russians in Grozny and the war ended, a high-ranking Russian general told me: "We have lost this war. Continued combat is only turning the population against us and increasing the strength of the resistance. We should withdraw from Chechnya."
Back then the rebels did not defeat the Russian forces completely, and our troops could have continued to fight on despite growing casualties. In fact there was a faction of generals and security chiefs that wanted to fight on to the bloody end, but there was another faction inside the Defense Ministry that wanted to quit, and they prevailed.
There was no public anti-war movement in Russia in 1996 and there is none today. But a week ago an influential three-star general (a military professional, not a general turned politician) told me virtually the same thing as in 1996: "We have lost this war and should get out."
There is apparently a growing anti-war movement within the Russian high-brass, a group of generals who believe that the Chechen war is totally immoral and impossible to win, and that it is destroying our armed forces both physically and morally for no good reason. But without a strong push from the Chechens it is impossible to begin to disengage forces.
So both sides are poised for a big fight and are today actively maneuvering for position. The rebels are stepping up attacks, while Russians are conducting more round-ups of guerrilla suspects. The Russians killed prominent warlord Arbi Barayev, who is believed to have been the organizer of many kidnappings of Russians and foreigners. But in the process of the "mopping up," civilians got hurt and anti-Russian feelings increased. It seems the more the Russians prepare for the Chechen offensive, the more untenable their position becomes.
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Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent Moscow-based defense analyst.
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