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The Eurasian Politician - Issue 2 (October 2000)
By Maya Beridze
Caucasian region development is most important for peace and stability in the international community. Georgia has already indicated its readiness to become a reliable partner of the West. Last Georgian parliamentary elections proved that elections have helped to strengthen Georgian democracy and that the process, broadly speaking, reflected the view of Georgian people. Though Western experts and observers noted the harassment of international observers and serious intimidation of personal involved in election process.
Georgia is too high up world ranking of corrupt countries and too low in the world competitiveness index. Nevertheless, Georgia will cement its position as lynch-pin between west and east and this is the aim of a political project to resurface the Silk Road, historically connecting Asia and Europe. The development of the Eurasian corridor is considered to the means for strengthening Georgia’s independence, which can be followed by economical welfare. By this road opened to traffic once more, Georgia’s function and place within the world community will be clearly defined, guaranteeing independence, peace and prosperity to Georgia.
Success for this position hinges on our countries of the USA as Georgia’s chief strategic partner. Georgia and other countries, are planing hopes on further development in oil and other East-West transit. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline construction has a great importance for Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and the Western countries. This huge project would allow Georgia to occupy its worthy place in the world. According to the estimate of foreign experts, the entire project will cost around USD 55 million. The Georgian budget will have USD 200-300 million revenue from this project. The number of people employed on this project, which now stands at 250 000, will greatly increase. The Baku-Supsa route, in fact, is very important for Georgia to be finally a central state of great Silk Road, Transeka project, Eurasian corridor.
This optimism is shared by representatives of "allied countries". US State advisor in Caspian power issues, Richard Morningstar, says that implementation of this project demonstrates that Georgia is a reliable partner. Oil pipeline and ferry line operation are the result of international co-operation and assistance that is being implemented by the interested countries. The Baku-Supsa line has become the first acting transport line for Caspian oil which bypasses Russia . Moscow has never hid its dissatisfaction with the projects of energy carrier transportation without Russia.
Moscow considers any step conducting in this direction to be expressed of "anti-Russian policy". So it is not accidental that opening of the Supsa-Baku oil pipeline coincided with Russia’s military activity in the Caucasus region. Relations between Russia and Georgia are becoming increasingly problematic because Moscow refuses to recognize that Georgia is an independent country and Russia can not dictate its conditions. Rather then helping Georgia, Moscow persists in both openly and secretly threatening Georgia and in presenting unreal demands to Tbilisi. Such an attitude smacks of neo-imperialism.
Georgia refused to rise to Moscow’s threat to introduce visas for Georgians and Azerbaijanis. If visa regime is introduced, then it must be introduced everywhere, including on the river Psou and the Rocki pass. Georgia will insist that Abkhazia and Tskinvali are included in the visa region. If they are not it will constitute a serious violation of Georgia’s sovereignty, providing the source for a huge diplomatic scandal. Russian Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin is skeptical about the wisdom of introducing visas. He believes that such a move will only aggravate Russian relations with Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Russia is pulling out all the stops to force Georgia to become involved in the war that Russia unleashed in North Caucasus. Russian politician and media compete with each other in making provocative statements, such as suggesting fighters and arms are entering Chechnya via Georgian territory, although they have no evidence to prove this. Such accusations aim at pressuring Georgia dancing to Russia’s tune.
Lot of problems exists between two countries, the main one is the unsettled conflict in Abkhazia. Georgia was not defeated by the Abkhazes, all know this in Georgia. The country was defeated by Russia and that reactionary foreseen high military echelons and other structures. Moscow must stop supporting the separatist regimes in Georgia, the self-declared republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are the fruits of big efforts of Russia. Though the seeds of the Abkhazian conflict were carefully sowed already by soviet power with "divide et impera" method. The Russian Duma persists in openly supporting such separatists movement. Russian analysis, who delight in dreaming about new separatists centres in Georgia should pause to consider how much more softly Tbilisi would have knocked at NATO’s door and how quitter its request for removal of Russian military bases would have been if Moscow had returned the regions of Abkhazia and Tskinvali to Georgia.
In result of Russia’s support of separatists, over 300 000 Georgians are refugees in their homeland. The numerous negotiations between Georgian and Abkhazian authorities and CIS decrees have no any positive results. Georgia demands are the same: restoration of Georgia’s jurisdiction and security of refugees return. The peaceful process of settling the conflict Abkhazia, which implies return and restoration of territorial integrity and to which refugees have been looking forward for 6 years, is at deadlock. Today no one believes that the conflict can be settled peacefully. The conflict can be settled only through a "Bosnian model". I.e. Western participation. But such a prospect is nowhere to be seen yet.
The opposition severely criticizes the government as it fails to oppose Ardzinba’s regime. In spite of this, Shevardnadze prolonged the Russian peacekeepers’ staying in Abkhazia, where they fulfil their duties as boarders and do not guarantee safety of Georgians. Some of the refugees, tired and angry after 6 years of vain expectations, declare that they no longer hope for promises and prefer to accept Ardzinba’s terms. If the refugees return becomes massive, Shevardnadze’s regime will face great difficulties. The partisans have not declared their position in the present situation. Their activities have recently been condemned by President Shevardnadze. The partisans activities may cause repression from the Abkhaz side to the refugees returning to Gali region. Shevardnadze’s statement was positively valued by Ardzinba, but coldly acknowledged in Georgia where the public opinion does not agree with such "distribution of roles" when the Abkhaz fighters are considered to be "protectors of order" and the people opposing it "terrorists".
OSCE, EU, CIS and other intergovernmental international organizations have already contributed a lot to the theory and practice of international conflict resolution. Nevertheless, a great number of refugees and internally displaced persons in Caucasus are still suffering from hunger and poverty. As the existing conflict resolution and peacekeeping instruments have not been totally successful in the Black Sea Region, there is a gap to be filled in near future to strengthen regional security. In this regard, regional or even sub-regional co-operation can hardly compensate for the weakness of international peacekeeping, peace-building or other security arrangements. The tragic events in the Balkans show where aggressive separatism and ethical cleansing can lead. Events taking place in Serbia and Abkhazia should not occur in the modern world. Conflicts can only be solved if the states suffering from separatism phenomenon continue their efforts to strengthen democracy and democratic institutions.
The Chechen tragedy and abuse of human rights in this region is logical echo and consequence of the ethnic cleansing in Abkhazia. Russians atrocities in Chechnya have long passed any permissible limits of a fight against terrorism. World community does not recognize the self-declared Abkhazian republic, but genocide and ethnic cleansing of Georgians is unpunished and not recognized by international organizations. That means that world community tolerates separatism. There is no sign of returning of Georgians in Abhasia. US department and Western leaders must insists Russia withdraw from imperial ambitious in Georgia and in the Caucasus region.
Georgia has seen itself as the beacon of democracy and progression in the Caucasus region. Since ancient times, the Black Sea Region and Georgia have always been an integral part of world civilization. Let us hope that this partnership will remain in the new millennium, too.
Batumi, Georgia
July,2000
The Author: Maya Beridze is a journalist based in Batumi, the Black Sea coast capital of the Adzarian Autonomous Republic in Georgia.