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The Eurasian Politician - Issue 1 (May 21st, 2000)
Russia in our 21st century may indeed have some features recognisable already from the literature of the 19th century. I would like to add to the list of recommended reading Fred Burnaby’s “A Ride to Khiva“ from 1877. He reminded the British public of those days not to be carried away with the Russian disinformation about cruelties of the enemy and victories of the Russian army, which “only existed in the fertile Muscovite imagination, which was eager to find an excuse for the appropriation of a neighbour’s property.” Burnaby describes also, how strangely his Russian fellow-travellers reacted to news from Bosnia.
Perhaps a real turn of the millennium did not take place a couple of days ago, but around 1954, and instead of proceeding to a new area, we have simply made a U turn? When we were supposed to be living in 1991, everything looked much like 1917, and within the next nine year, we were once again reading about Bosnia and Kosovo. Perhaps the turning point was Stalingrad 57 years ago, and the way back in time since then has brought US now to 1886? Anyway, while Western Europe has returned to the free travel and free trade ideals of the 1870s, the Balkans are again suffering from war and deportations, and Russia is fighting at its southern borders. Soon we may learn that serfdom (in some form) has been restored, and then it will be time for a new Crimean War.
The Great Game between Russia and the Western Powers, however, has its origins in India and Afghanistan. Will it end there too? If there are still people expecting an apocalypse this year (2000), they could place their bets now for an India-Pakistan nuclear war. Although the Indian Airlines tragedy ended peacefully in Kandahar, the Indian media is continuing its accusations against Pakistan (with little evidence, as usual), and a bomb has exploded in Indian-held Kashmir. The Indian foreign minister has accused Pakistan of aiding the terrorists, whom he has somehow identified as Pakistani citizens, although no names or faces of hijackers were revealed. On the other hand, the Pakistani foreign minister has referred to an earlier hijacking in 1971, and suggested that the Indians may have provoked the new hijacking this time too.
His suspicions were expressed well before Indian authorities gave in and let the hijackers disappear – presumably to Pakistan, although Pakistan has vowed to arrest them. He also mentioned, that there was an Indian agent on board. The Indians claim, that the five terrorists were negotiating with a mysterious “third party“ during the hijacking. Some international news agencies listed six hijackers, but only five left the plane in Kandahar.
A mystery plot, a fake hijacking, a provocation – but for what? Well, Stratfor concluded during the hijacking, that the whole Pakistani foreign policy was taken hostage. Indian research centres suppose already, that India may soon improve its relations with some factions of the Taliban. Those are most likely the former Soviet-trained artillery and air force officers who switched sides and grew beards when Najibullah’s regime collapsed, and ended up in Taliban’s service.
The timing would be ideal for a Hindu-nationalist Indian government to join a nationalist socialist Russian government in finishing off the Afghan War. They just need to give the crucial support for the ex-communists among the Taliban to overthrow the pro-Pakistani faction of Mullah Omar. The price to pay is that the new rulers in Kabul would get diplomatic recognition, and help the Taliban to crush the troublesome Ahmed Shah Masood. This could be done by a nominally Uzbek intervention in the name of an international hunt for Uzbek Islamists, Tajik rebels, and Osama bin Laden. Pakistan would be held in check by India and perhaps by an upsurge of demands for an independent Baluchistan. That might suit the Unocal’s re-engagement to the Turkmen-Afghan pipeline project well, and it would be bad news for US designs in Azerbaijan and Georgia.
If the 21st century can be thought of as some sort of mirror of the 19th century, the Crimean War would be transposed from west to east of the Caucasus. It would be soon followed by a restoration of the Holy Alliance, with the USA and other great powers abandoning the contesting Cold War/Great Game concept in favour of co-operation against all forms of liberal and national “revolutionary“ activities.
Borders may not be changed, nor governments overthrown even if they are in gross violation of the liberal principles of democracy and self-determination. Stability was the key word even in 1815-1848, which might correspond with the future years of 2038-2071 or 2060-2093. That was the time when Bosnia, Kosovo, Caucasus, Turkestan, Afghanistan, and India did not appear in the daily news, and the issues of Russian imperialism did not disturb the western public. Until then, we may be going through a bloody period of historical déjà-vu’s.
Wishing you all, nonetheless, a Happy New Millennium,
Antero Leitzinger