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The Eurasian Politician - March 2004
By: Christian Jokinen & Anssi Kullberg, March 15, 2004
Sunday, March 14, 2004, may remain the European history as a black day for democracy, whereas for various extremist movements and terrorists using violence for their political aims, it was a day of triumph. In the Spanish election, a noble and civilized European nation unfortunately proved that al-Qaida was right in their prediction last year, where they stated that Europe is weak and will shiver and yield in front of terror. Al-Qaida estimated that Spain would bear maximally two or three strikes. Now it became clear that one strike was enough.
Not only Spanish but all European media made clear right after the Madrid bombing that terrorism pays. European democracy can be dramatically influenced by use of violence and lie. Perhaps the most powerful visual image of this was the Spanish left-wing demonstrators rising their hands up as a symbolic gesture. The message was clear: Europe surrenders in face of terrorism. This is an image that will remain in the minds of terrorists as their so far biggest victory.
It shows nothing was learned from Istanbul, although Foreign Minister Ana Palacio of the government of Prime Minister José María Aznar reminded the public of the fact, that the Turkish government's critical policy towards the US and their criticism against the Iraq War did nothing to save Turkey from the rage of terrorists, like it did not save Morocco, Indonesia, or the German peacekeepers in Afghanistan either. The European media just cannot resist the temptation of using any terrorist attack to undermine their own governments, who struggle against terrorism.
It can be called the Istanbul lesson that Turkey's appeasement at the fiercest European critics of the US, and sudden lack of determination in counterterrorist strategy just accelerated terrorist activities against Turkey. When the relations between Turkey and the US started to cool off, this did not make the terrorists leave Turkey alone, but quite the reverse. They accelerated their activities with new inspiration, as they saw the signs of weakness in Turkish society, and they calculated that now acts of terrorism could influence Turkey's policies and they could rule the Turks with fear.
So it happened that also many such terrorist groups that we already thought were dead, suddenly reappeared both from the extreme left and from the religious extremists. Radical Islamists found new inspiration from al-Qaida, and turned against the moderate Islamists who had gained victory in the Turkish parliament election and founded the government. The same signs of weakness also reactivated the extreme left. The PKK, a revolutionary extreme leftist organization claiming a Kurdish cause and therefore the Turkish counterpart for the Basque ETA of Spain, announced they, too, were to re-launch violence. The "Islamic Attack Front of Greater Orient", a strange organization combining Marxist and Islamist elements, who was responsible for the Istanbul bombings, got new vitality from al-Qaida.
It is quite sure that the results of the Spanish election will inspire meetings and assemblies of extremist organizations to be held throughout all Europe in the forthcoming weeks and months. After all, it is now a proven fact that terrorism really pays, and Western democracies will give in to it. All extremists will now have increasing confidence in the power and usefulness of terrorism in violently manipulating the media and politics. Many such terrorist organizations that we already thought have disappeared will be revived and reappear with new generations of cadres and radicals who have been nurtured in the anti-globalization extremist movements. This goes to Islamist as well as left-wing extremist and anarchist movements. Also fascist and racial terror and the potential use of mobs, pogroms and other violent means of influencing politics will become more probable now.
It is also certain that this development will be closely watched by the other theater of elections last weekend, namely Moscow. The Kremlin is now increasingly led by people who have decades of experience and expertise not only in espionage and coordination of terrorism, but also in the manipulation of other countries' politics and public opinion by violent and conspiratorial means. This will put European democracy in increasing danger especially in the countries bordering Russia, but basically anywhere. In many large countries at the edge of democracy and with heavy influence of their respective security services, such as Russia, India, Pakistan and Indonesia, it has become a standard state of affairs that mysterious terrorist attacks and their propagandistic use always precede elections. Is Europe moving to the same direction?
The Spanish Socialists unscrupulously exploited the terrorist attacks in order to influence Sunday's election results. Before the strikes every poll had predicted victory to the Conservatives. The Socialists did everything they could in order to put blame of the terror on the victims instead of perpetrators. Also the media should stop for some serious self-criticism, as their judgment has clearly been corrupted by anti-Americanism. Aznar's policy, on the other hand, has been responsible and consistent in its opposition to terrorism. Because of the often repeated opposite claims it is also important to notice that there is a lot of indisputable evidence about Saddam Hussein's support for various terrorist organizations for years and decades, and also the relations between the Ba'ath regime and al-Qaida seem very plausible.
Aznar's government had all the legitimate reasons to believe at first that the ETA was behind the bombs, because latest in December the ETA attempted to do the same. The media claims that the ETA would always have warned before its strikes, and that the ETA would not have targeted civilians, are simply not true. There were many pieces of evidence pointing at the ETA direction, although other pieces of evidence seemed to point at an Arab connection. There was absolutely no basis for declaring, like the media did, that al-Qaida would surely be behind the bombs.
The Spanish government cannot be blamed for concealing information, if it avoids handing over a scapegoat to the media before any police investigation has been done (like usually happens in Russia). In addition, the arrest of three Moroccans and two Indian Hindus does not really point at al-Qaida, since the latter is, despite all, a strictly Islamic organization that does not accept non-Muslim members. The evidence is still contradictory and any wise analyst would wait for some results from the criminal investigation before making accusations. Aznar's first reaction to blame the ETA was not given as if it was an established fact, although it may have been premature. However, most experts of the field agreed with him and first suspected the ETA, although the media wanted al-Qaida to be guilty.
The media has a part of responsibility for the fact that terrorism has become useful and successful in our times. Therefore the media is also partly responsible for the existence and continuation of terrorism aiming at inflicting mass death upon civilians. It is only in the modern media-centered culture that this kind of horrible and despicable terrorism has become more successful than many other tactics of political violence. It is also a consequence of the media culture that al-Qaida discovered and that other terrorist organizations are quickly discovering, that the effect of terrorism on Western societies can be strengthened by blurring the truth of who did it. Al-Qaida, in itself, is a perfect example of this new internationalist method of a total lie extended to the "propaganda of action". Therefore, contradictory clues left at the crime seats may also have intentions to add to the emergence of confusion, general fear and conspiracy theories. All of this works in favor of the terrorists.
The battle against al-Qaida is, first and foremost, an ideological war. Therefore we should remember the lessons of George Kennan's famous policy of containment, which was crucial in defeating communism. Only a stable society with spiritual vitality and resistance can reject the threat of a totalitarian ideology mobilized against democracy by extremely determined machinery. The role of public opinion, which depends on mass media, is of utmost importance in this struggle.
The attention terrorism gets, and its influence to decision-making, gives a disproportional benefit for the extremist wings of various resistance and independence movements, compared with their moderate mainstreams, which remain in the shadow for the media. This has greatly contributed to the radicalization of certain extremist wings for example in Kashmir and Chechnya. The continuous attention enjoyed by Palestinian terrorism has even yielded a Nobel Peace Prize for Yasser Arafat.
Whereas the dictatorships of the Middle East, such as Syria and Iran, are authoritarian enough to suppress the liberal reformists in their respective countries, the Western democracies are weak to defend themselves against the "propaganda of action" of the terrorists, who unscrupulously exploit the open society of the West. Therefore Thursday's terrorist strikes in Madrid and their consequence in the election were a heavy blow against Western democracy, where the multitude of opinions has been more valuable a thing than oligarchy or dictatorship of one opinion.
Political pluralism is the core of democracy. In the eyes of terrorists and dictators, however, a multitude of ideas is a weakness. This view is shared by Usama bin Ladin and Adolf Hitler, both of whom discovered how to manipulate the conflicting opinions of the open society against each other, to "divide and rule". Britain's Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain wanted to buy a peace, believing that a policy of concessions would fulfill Hitler's desires for expansion. For Hitler, however, concessions were just a sign of the weakness of democracies, and he considered Chamberlain as a clown.
The Spanish voters, by changing the regime in Spain, have not bought themselves a peace, but reputation as a nation where terrorism could vanquish Western determination on their own soil. Whatever the new government in Spain will do, this means, for the terrorists throughout Europe, that Spain has left the consensus that terrorism must not be allowed to be successful. We are all going to suffer of that, as most probably terrorists throughout Europe will now try to make pre-election violence a standard way of toppling down responsible governments. This, in turn, will favor the radical left and the radical right.
Fortunately, both Hitler and the grey eminencies of the Soviet Union did underestimate the determination of Western democracy. We can only hope that the same will happen to bin Ladin, too.
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Christian Jokinen and Anssi Kullberg are researchers at the Research Unit for Conflicts and Terrorism at the University of Turku, Finland.