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The Eurasian Politician - April 2003
by "Abu Charma", 27th March, 2003
Our "El Cid" will give the readers of The Eurasian Politician impressions of the ongoing war in Iraq.
News from the North! The American 174th Airborne Brigade has paradropped to the Kurdish-controlled area near Irbil. The estimated amount of paratroopers varies from some hundreds to one thousand troops. I am thinking that it might be the biggest American wartime airborne assault since the crossing of the Rhine! The situation will change strategically only when these troops will step into an offensive and form a threat to Baghdad, or bind enough of Iraqi troops away from the battle over Baghdad. There are rumors about tanks and vehicles being transferred by transport aircraft. Now the troops are still too weak for a real northern offensive.
The Iraqis have announced that tribal chiefs and the loyalists of the regime would have sworn to fight "until death for dear Saddam". Interesting. Literature gives the impression that only Saddam's own tribe could be expected to stand for him in the reality, and they would fight in the Tikrit area. The dictatorship of Iraq ensured that before the war there was no tolerance for tribal loyalty before the state. Again Saddam seems to be playing "bad hand with time-to-time skill" to use card fame terms. I think before Afghanistan, tribal agitation could have worked as a some kind of psychological threat to the Americans. In regard to the strategy, Afghanistan has surely showed to the Americans that tribal warfare does not offer significant advantage against modern warfare. Tribal loyalty and bondage only form a factor in motivation, but in armed terms it is not significant.
In the North, the core problem will not be clans or tribes fighting each other, but the larger question about the status of the Kurdish nation, and creating lasting stability. Turkey is against independent Kurdistan, and it is also reluctant to see strong autonomy in the neighborhood. It may be even so that ethnic coherence of the Kurds prevents the use of the Afghan "Northern Alliance" model in Iraq, because if the Kurds would really liberate Mosul, Kirkuk and Suleymaniya, and stay there, it is difficult for me to see chances, as in Afghanistan, to balance the situation with Shia and Sunni Arabs after the war. At the last hand, control is in American hands. To be honest, I don't believe that the Americans would even drive the peshmergas south towards Baghdad together with their own paratroopers. After the war, it could be too difficult to turn the Kurds back, and make them happy with strong autonomy in their mountainous regions. But then again, the Kurds' chronic mutual distrust may play a positive role, as their alliance would hardly last. That means the Americans will have the chance of exercising a "divide and rule" strategy to keep the Kurds in their control.
There are again "boring" news from the South: The Republican Guard is said to be on its way towards the head of the attackers, which is now in the area between the Euphrates and Tigris, after they passed by Nasiriya. They are between Ash-Shatrah and Al-Kut. According to the BBC, the Iraqi columns have been really beaten up by fighters and bombers. I hope so... There was sandstorm in Baghdad, painting yesterday's horror pictures from the marketplace with apocalyptic reddish sand colors, but now it seems that at least in Baghdad the sandstorm is over and the weather looks nice. This means good hunting season for Apaches and the Marines Cobras, and beating up the Iraqis.
On the other hand, according to the CNN, the Apaches vs. Medina battle in Kerbala was a tough experience also to the helicopter crews, because the Iraqis have at last understood to mass their anti-air fire. Still I would be very surprised if this battle wouldn't turn to the advantage of the Americans, with such previous warning and aerial superiority. Yet the maintenance lines are long, the situation unstable in An-Nasiriya, and the enemy is on their home ground. Still fire power gives lots of trumps to the Coalition. It seems the Iraqis have as their tactics to get passed the attacking head of the Americans, and to strike against the bridges of Nasiriya, to isolate the American head group, and then start a battle against the front troops. At least this should be the tactics of the Iraqis. I am sure they will try something in Nasiriya. However, I am still not quite impressed that the Iraqis have any skills of war. It would be the smartest option for them to drive their tanks to Al-Kut and wait there, and then fight within the city. The Americans would not be able to isolate this division, as it would constitute too great a threat against the back, once the battle for Baghdad begins.
The news from the very South do not make sense. Apparently about 120 tanks and vehicles attacked or escaped towards the Al-Faw peninsula. According to the BBC, the British artillery, tanks, and fighters destroyed part of the column, while the rest were dispersed around. I think they did so in total disorder, but of course there is always the chance that these troops would be ready to re-group somewhere in the desert, and to continue their attack. Still I consider the Iraqis quite stupid. They seem not quite get it that the Coalition is ceaselessly monitoring the whole war theatre with their unmanned reconnaissance aircraft, radar, and satellites.
The arrival of the aid ship to Umm Qasr was again delayed because of the mine danger. The Americans have announced that a new infantry division (4th), that is, 30'000 troops more, would be sent to the area in the follow up wave. I believe the Battle for Baghdad will begin already before they arrive, but it is always good if there is some muscles involved. Blair has traveled to the US to meet with Bush. It is believed that he's trying to push the Americans to do something about Israel and the Road Map and to discuss the rule of the UN in the post-war conduct of Iraq. We will see what happens. It would indeed be good to launch the Road Map soon.
Where it comes to the UN, Kofi Annan made a desperate appeal to the whole Security Council for peace and minimal destruction. Pathetic and miserable. I hope from all my heart that the Americans won't let themselves cheated again to do anything that would further strengthen Russia or France. At least one flower has bloomed out of this war: the fact that the relations between the US and Russia are at least a little bit worse than before, because the Russians have been selling Iraq all the weapons and technology that the UN has prohibited. For instance, tools to mess up GPS, night-vision binoculars, and missiles. Of course it was to be expected that wherever the devil is at work, there the tools are made in CCCP or Russia! According to experts Russia has indeed been quite industrious in these things.
At 11:28. According to the BBC, there is fierce fighting over the 3rd Division's maintenance route at Al-Samawah. 1500 Fedayeen Saddam terrorists had tried to attack to the road, but the Apaches had driven them away and back into the city, causing casualties to them. Maintenance transports are, however, stuck. In regard to strategy, the situation may turn bad if it continues so. The Iraqis are imitating the Viet Cong, and they try to disperse the American attack so that troops will be bound to securing duties and the 3rd Division will not be able to attack Baghdad with all its strength. Old tactics... The Iraqis can delay what's inevitable, but they cannot stop it. When the 4th Division arrives to the area after one to one and half weeks, things will get back into normal. The Coalition has, however, made a strategic miscalculation in counting on the good will of those to be liberated. They should remember Kipling: "They will hate their liberator. But it's the white man's burden..."
In An-Nasiriya, the Americans have been shooting at their own. There are 37 wounded own troops, which is painful, indeed painful. BBC, by the way, showed what sand and shit may cause at worst: A grenade of a howitzer exploded in the pipe and the whole gun went into fire. Men were running out for their lives. This time, however, there were no casualties. News from Basra are strange: Now they say there weren't 150 tanks in the column but only three, and they are now destroyed.
Charma