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The Eurasian Politician - March 2003
by "Charma", 20th March, 2003
Our "El Cid" will give the readers of The Eurasian Politician impressions of the ongoing war in Iraq.
Today, a waiting of twelve years have come to an end, while we are receiving information on the ongoing ground invasion towards Basra. This is concrete history in making. In Baghdad, the anti-aircraft artillery is firing into dark sky, where pilots with top training are flying the top products of Western technology. Chirurgic missiles search their targets and destroy them.
Sirs, this is my forecast for the next weeks:
Within 1-3 days: Tomorrow, inshallah, or latest on Monday, Basra will be liberated. I believe, supported by evidence, that Basra shall be the first liberated region in the south. Against the 3rd Division of the Americans, there are 2-3 infantry divisions, poorly trained and poorly motivated.
Tonight and in the coming nights, bombers will go on striking with force into Baghdad, which has been fortified into two defense zones.
After 7-8 days, Baghdad's outskirts will be reached by the first ranger units, and, inshallah, even by whole divisions.
Within days after the beginning of the invasion, perhaps even as I'm writing this, there will be major troop transfers to ground by helicopters and paratrooper units to the desert area on the Saudi Arabian frontier, because: 1) Missiles that could be launched towards Israel, Kuwait, or Saudi Arabia would be launched there. 2) A strong bridgehead can be formed there for combat helicopters, which are hunting the missiles.
A similar airborn ground operation will be most probably made to the north - Mosul, Arbil, Kirkuk - because: 1) In that way, the north will be secured and kept stable. 2) That will be used to check the Turkish operations. 3) A front towards Baghdad will be formed, and directed against Saddam's hometown Tikrit as well as Samarra and Baquba. 4) The oil wells in the Kirkuk and Salahuddin area will be protected.
A smaller airborn landing will probably be done to the Haditha and Ramad area.
Then the motorized troops together with armored forces will complete a clip movement on both sides of Baghdad to make contact with the troops grounded.
When Baghdad has been besieged, the real job begins, as well as the war of nerves. The Iraqi Republican Guards and special Republican Guards have been concentrated around Baghdad. I believe that continuing air bombing and the hunt for Saddam will weaken their combat capability, but I also presume that those, who have nothing to lose, and who are too remarkable Baathists, will not necessarily surrender.
However, that far, opportunism may well defeat discipline: If circles within the Baath manage to commit a coup, it would release them from responsibility and make such a group friends of America. If the war has to be taken into city, the situation is bad for all. No doubt, Saddam will fall. However, it may take dozens, if not 100-300 Coalition soldiers. This is bad, because "if you piss on America, America will take a giant piss on you".
Commando troops will take key targets as soon as the battle for Baghdad has started. This will be followed by simultaneous massive and hard attack from several sides. Lots of helicopters and BTRs. Compare with Israeli raids on Gaza and Jenin.
There are many claims that there would be massacres in Kurdistan. I don't believe so. Surely there will be Baathists hanging, but that is understandable and justified. However, the Americans cannot allow a large-scale murder and chaos to take place. I also don't believe that Turkey would commit any severe mistakes. That would be too risky. The Yankees would use economic support as a means to contain Turkey.
People are afraid that the Iraqi tanks and troops could resist, because of their large numbers. However, the one who loses aerial supremacy, will lose the game. Iraq does not have air forces.
-- Charma